Russia — Darkness Before a Brighter Dawn?

It’s easy to forget that millions of Russians are appalled by the war of aggression waged against Ukraine. Don’t write them off.

Whenever a future Russia is imagined, it seems to be described in two ways. Either as a breakup into separate states or as a status quo state, largely unchanged. Proponents of a “disintegration” identify its possible benefits, first and foremost as a guarantee of Russia’s weakness and as a just punishment for its war of aggression against Ukraine.  

The other end of the spectrum posits a Russia that is a persistent pariah and…