Who’s election disrupter Robert F Kennedy Jr? | US Election 2024

Robert F Kennedy Jr, scion of probably the most well-known United States political dynasty, will announce his working mate on Tuesday as he competes as an unbiased candidate within the 2024 US presidential election.

The percentages are stacked in opposition to him as no third-party candidate has gained the presidency in additional than a century and a half.

However the longtime environmental lawyer and anti-vaccine activist has been capable of create a media buzz, due to his robust model recognition: His uncle was former President John F Kennedy, and his father was Robert F Kennedy, a former US lawyer common and senator.

He ditched the Democratic Social gathering after failing to safe its presidential nomination and is taking part in to each far-left and far-right parts in his long-shot bid for the White Home.

His marketing campaign seems to be resonating amongst so-called double haters, who dread the prospect of a rematch between incumbent Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, who’s the frontrunner to win the Republican Social gathering’s nomination regardless of his authorized woes.

Latest opinion polls indicated that whereas he would possibly take voters from each candidates, it’s Biden whom he may damage probably the most.

Amid a local weather of political disenchantment, Kennedy has projected himself as a political outsider and blasts “company kleptocracy” whereas touting his environmental credentials.

A longtime vaccine sceptic, he has been accused of spreading misinformation in regards to the COVID-19 vaccine on different media shops, similar to conservative host Joe Rogan’s widespread podcast. Rogan has additionally been accused of spreading falsehoods about COVID-19 vaccines on The Joe Rogan Expertise.

Whereas Kennedy’s detractors have branded him a conspiracy theorist, his supporters hail him as a fact teller.

So who is that this political freewheeler? The place does he come from? What does he suppose, and does he actually stand an opportunity of profitable?

What’s Kennedy’s background?

Kennedy’s household identify evokes privilege and tragedy in equal measure. He was simply 9 years outdated when President John F Kennedy was shot useless in November 1963. His father, Robert, suffered the identical destiny whereas mounting his personal presidential bid 5 years later.

Grief-stricken, RFK Jr turned to heroin to “fill an empty house within me”, lastly getting clear after an arrest for possession. His second spouse, Mary, mom of 4 of his six youngsters, additionally battled habit and died by suicide. He’s now married to Cheryl Hines, well-known for her function on the sitcom Curb Your Enthusiasm.

Kennedy suffers from a speech obstacle referred to as spasmodic dysphonia, which causes muscular tissues within the larynx to spasm, though the situation has not appeared to have dented his efficiency on exhibits hosted by the likes of Rogan and conservative Canadian best-selling writer Jordan Peterson, the place his shoot-from-the-hip model performs effectively.

His controversial views have led his family to disavow him. “Bobby would possibly share the identical identify as our father, however he doesn’t share the identical values, imaginative and prescient or judgment,” his siblings mentioned in a press release posted on X. “We denounce his candidacy and imagine it to be perilous for our nation.”

Bobby would possibly share the identical identify as our father, however he doesn’t share the identical values, imaginative and prescient or judgment. At present’s announcement is deeply saddening for us. We denounce his candidacy and imagine it to be perilous for our nation. @roryekennedy @joekennedy @KKT_Kennedy pic.twitter.com/WJfGwSxN1z

— Kerry Kennedy (@KerryKennedyRFK) October 9, 2023

What does he stand for?

Not one for sticking to a script, Kennedy holds a combined bag document of usually contradictory views that make him troublesome to pigeonhole.

Take the setting. As soon as named a “Hero of the Planet” by Time journal, the previous environmental lawyer is thought for his campaigns to wash up the nation’s waterways, scale back using poisonous pesticides and promote renewables. But his calls for “freedom and free markets” as an answer to local weather change have raised fears that he would let business set the tempo for curbing fossil gas use.

He has additionally threatened to repeal Biden’s signature local weather laws, which pushes for a transition to a inexperienced financial system.

His libertarian streak got here to the fore throughout the COVID-19 pandemic when he accused the US authorities’s then-chief medical adviser, Anthony Fauci, of “a historic coup d’etat in opposition to Western democracy”. He additionally claimed the virus was engineered to assault Caucasians and Black folks, sparing Chinese language folks and Ashkenazi Jews.

His views on the Israel-Palestine battle are usually contradictory. Kennedy supported Roger Waters final 12 months amid mass outrage over a gig that noticed the Pink Floyd co-founder donning Nazi apparel and projecting the brand of an Israeli arms agency on a large inflated pig. But, months later, the politician staunchly defended Israel’s no-limits warfare on Gaza, which has killed greater than 32,000 folks and pushed the besieged enclave to the verge of famine.

Isolationist by nature, he opposes assist to Ukraine, blaming the US and NATO for making a “proxy warfare” with Russia. In a current interview, he mentioned the billions in funding to the war-torn nation might be used for “therapeutic farms” for folks within the throes of habit and melancholy as he highlighted the fentanyl disaster.

“His job can be to straddle the large chasm between RFK Jr, the very liberal, progressive environmentalist and the anti-vaccination crusader,” mentioned Steffen Schmidt, professor emeritus within the Division of Political Science at Iowa State College.

On immigration, RFK Jr opposes Trump’s plan to erect a wall on the US border with Mexico. He has additionally been vital of Biden’s dealing with of the border disaster. He has promised to safe the border with using fashionable expertise, similar to cameras and detectors, to cease entry of undocumented immigrants. He backs increasing authorized immigration into the US.

Will voters purchase his combined messages?

That’s troublesome to foretell. In keeping with a current Reuters/Ipsos ballot, six in 10 respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the two-party system and needed a 3rd selection.

Each the Democrats and the Republicans see him as a menace. The previous are particularly frightened, fearing that the lure of his star-power identify may siphon votes from Biden.

In keeping with a number of opinion polls launched in February and March, 40 % of Individuals have a beneficial opinion of RFK Jr. His approval scores have come down since December when Gallup confirmed 52 % of Individuals favored him – greater than these for Trump or Biden.

“RFK Jr appeals to these Republican right-wing of us who take pleasure in conspiracy theories, however he additionally appeals considerably to those that are actually far left,” mentioned Melissa Smith, writer of the 2022 e book, Third Events, Outsiders, and Renegades: Trendy Challenges to the Two-Social gathering System in Presidential Elections. “It’s kind of just like the far proper and the far left wrap round and might coalesce round a candidate like this.”

Kennedy usually cites help from Gen Z, the technology born from 1997 to 2012. His coverage concepts don’t seem like geared in direction of the youth vote. He has, for instance, referred to as for a 15-week federal ban on abortion and blames video video games and rising use of antidepressants for gun violence. However his straight speak on financial inequality resonates with youthful folks battling low wages and excessive housing prices.

May he actually make an influence?

Whereas Republicans and Democrats are routinely on the presidential poll, outsider candidates have to spend thousands and thousands accumulating signatures from registered voters and hiring legal professionals to battle off authorized challenges from established events over complicated poll entry guidelines that adjust from state to state.

“The electoral system was created by the 2 huge events to maintain third-party candidates from profitable,” Schmidt mentioned.

Up to now, Kennedy has certified for the poll in just one state, Utah. He has filed paperwork to create his personal We the Folks Social gathering in California, Delaware, Hawaii, Mississippi and North Carolina and is organising the Texas Unbiased Social gathering within the Lone Star state.

His marketing campaign workforce advised the The New York Occasions that it reckoned the strikes would slash the variety of signatures he wants throughout all 50 states by 330,000.

Even when he makes it onto ballots, analysts imagine his probabilities of success are distant. Many cited the case of Ross Perot, the rich Texan who polled as a frontrunner in opposition to Invoice Clinton and George HW Bush in 1992. He fell in need of expectations, securing solely a fifth of the favored vote and failing to win a single electoral vote. A presidential candidate wants 270 electoral votes to win.

Nonetheless, Kennedy may make a distinction within the election. The typical of opinion polls tracked by US election knowledge website RealClearPolitics confirmed that whereas Trump leads Biden nationally by 2 proportion factors in a two-candidate race, that hole widens to greater than 4 factors if Kennedy can also be within the race.

In key battleground states similar to Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Trump’s lead over Biden grows if Kennedy and different candidates are thought of.

“Do I believe he’ll win? Completely not. Do I believe he would possibly steal a number of votes? Sure. However will he actually influence the election? If historical past could be trusted, the reply is not any,” Smith mentioned.

Some other exterior bets?

Kennedy will not be the one third-party candidate making a well-funded credible bid for the presidency. No Labels, a centrist group that has but to call a candidate, has certified in 14 states to date. And Cornel West, an African American thinker and left-wing activist, launched his personal bid after breaking with the Inexperienced Social gathering.

However in the end, Kennedy has one thing the others don’t. No matter his insurance policies, his hyperlinks to the closest factor the US has ever needed to a royal household may but work in his favour.