What’s cloud seeding and did it play any function within the Dubai floods?

Stranded airline passengers and a cat submerged in floodwaters clinging to a automobile door deal with turned notable moments this week in Dubai because the usually arid metropolis was inundated with historic ranges of rain. Claims have gone viral that the deluge was introduced on by cloud seeding, a way that goals to extend precipitation, that’s closely utilized within the United Arab Emirates. 

However is it actually accountable? 

Daniel Swain, a local weather scientist on the College of California, Los Angeles, stated that attending to the underside of the “record-shattering excessive rainfall” requires breaking down the science behind the occasion and the approach. 

“There’s at the moment a disconnect within the on-line discourse between the form of human actions that doubtless did have an effect on it (greenhouse warming) versus these which have truly been the main target of the web dialog to date (cloud seeding), and what this implies for the way we collectively perceive our skill to actively have an effect on the climate on completely different spatial and temporal scales,” he stated in an emailed assertion. 

What’s cloud seeding? 

Many have questioned for the reason that downpour in Dubai whether or not cloud seeding was accountable. However what’s cloud seeding and the way does it work precisely?

Cloud seeding is a way used to enhance precipitation. In keeping with the Desert Analysis Institute, scientists do that by placing tiny particles known as nuclei into the environment that connect to clouds.

“These nuclei present a base for snowflakes to kind. After cloud seeding takes place, the newly fashioned snowflakes rapidly develop and fall from the clouds again to the floor of the Earth, growing snowpack and streamflow,” the institute says. 

Within the Center East, as a substitute of precipitation within the type of snow, its cloud seeding program generates elevated rain. 

Scientists sometimes go about cloud seeding in two methods – utilizing both turbines on the bottom or distributing the nuclei by way of plane. 

What precipitated the rain in Dubai? 

However was the rain in Dubai from cloud seeding? 

“Did cloud seeding play a task? Doubtless no,” Swain stated. “However how about local weather change? Doubtless sure!” 

The world is continuous to see month after month of record-breaking warmth and 2023 was the most popular yr globally ever recorded. Scientists have discovered that hotter temperatures enhance evaporation, leading to extra frequent and intense storms, such because the one which occurred in Dubai. These circumstances additionally gasoline different excessive climate occasions, together with droughts, placing opposing forces at intense odds that may doubtless pressure communities with out ample adaptation. 

Andrew Kruczkiewicz, senior researcher at Columbia Local weather College, informed CBS Information he does not imagine there’s any present proof presently that cloud seeding pushed the downpour over the sting. 

“This occasion was forecast pretty properly days prematurely and I feel it is unlikely {that a} cloud seeding operation would transfer ahead given the well-forecast intense rainfall,” he stated.

The nation’s National Emergency Crisis and Management Authority issued climate warnings on Monday earlier than the storm’s arrival, urging individuals to adjust to native directions from authorities and asking them to remain at residence and solely go away within the case of an emergency. 

Meteorologist Ryan Maue, former chief scientist on the U.S. Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, gave the Related Press a extra definitive reply: “It is most definitely not cloud seeding.” 

“If that occurred with cloud seeding, they’d have water on a regular basis,” he stated. “…in relation to controlling particular person rain storms, we aren’t anyplace near that. And if we had been able to doing that, I feel we’d be able to fixing many tougher issues than making a rain bathe over Dubai.”

The deluge, he stated, “speaks extra to questions round what are the resilience measures which might be built-in into the city planning commonplace working procedures.” 

“Virtually in all places on Earth there’s a danger of flash flooding,” he stated. “But, since it isn’t essentially the most frequent kind of maximum occasion, generally it is decrease on the precedence checklist when choices should be made round infrastructure or resilience, or simply city improvement extra broadly.”  

How important was the flooding in Dubai?  

Greater than 5.59 inches of rain fell over Dubai inside 24 hours. Whereas a half-foot of rain could not appear to be a lot numerically, that is greater than what the town sees in a mean yr, and different components of the UAE noticed even increased ranges. 

It was a “historic climate occasion,” the state-run WAM information company stated, including that it was past “something documented for the reason that begin of information assortment in 1949.” 

Dubai is often dry and with a downpour like this being so unprecedented, the town’s infrastructure was not ready. The drainage methods had been overwhelmed and Dubai Worldwide Airport, one of many busiest on the planet, needed to briefly halt operations. One aircraft passenger informed Reuters many individuals had been ready greater than 12 hours to have the ability to resume journey. Footage from the airport exhibits planes taxiing in eerie floodwaters. 

“Over a yr’s value of rainfall was skilled in only a few hours,” Kruczkiewicz informed CBS Information. “And why that is essential to to grasp is that if you see this quantity of rainfall in semi-arid arid space, the soil is not designed to filter the water as quick as in different areas. … You do not want that a lot water falling or rainfall falling in a brief time frame to trigger main points.” 

Is cloud seeding efficient? 

In keeping with the Desert Analysis Institute, how efficient cloud seeding is relies on the precise challenge through which it is getting used. Citing a number of research, the institute stated it is helped enhance general snowpack in some areas by a minimum of 10% per yr. One other examine discovered {that a} five-year challenge in New South Wales, Australia resulted in a 14% snowfall enhance.  

The UAE’s Nationwide Heart of Meteorology launched the Analysis Program for Rain Enhancement Science to advance the know-how, saying that for dryer areas internationally, cloud seeding “may provide a viable, cost-effective complement to current water provides.” Many areas even past the Center East have been affected by water shortage points, together with Colombia, Mexico and Hawaii.